NEW YORK — Earlier in the week, Michael Nathanson, Mike Morton and Robert Fishman hosted the sixth annual MoffettNathanson Advertising Day, which featured a collection of industry leaders.
What are some of the key learnings from the event? For one, “the secular pressure
facing Linear TV advertising” has been a subject of increasing concern for the Wall Street media finance-focused investment house.
In a summary of the event released by MoffettNathanson, the analysts note, “The early year optimism about a second half recovery has fallen by the wayside but there remains some hope that 2024 will be able to turn a corner.”
As the SAG-AFTRA and WGA East and WGA West strikes each continue to impact scripted content schedules, there will be further pressure on advertisers to find the necessary reach. Sports remains a safe haven, MoffettNathanson notes, but there is a limited amount of inventory available for the premium games.
Thus, they say, “The challenge for Linear TV is the collapse of non-sports viewership and the lack of CPM inflation/ad volume to offset that demand.”
The financial analysts’ worries about the secular risks are only heightened after their conversations with executives this week. “Traditional TV networks are being squeezed as advertisers continue to shift ad dollars to targeted spending on different digital platforms to help avoid the ‘waste’ often associated with brand building,” they say. “As the focus for advertisers evolves from a singular goal of driving efficient reach to one that now includes maximizing audience attention, buyers can open up a broader set of inventory options. That would seem to be the final blow to the traditional Linear model, devaluing
its core remaining advantage of offering efficient reach.”
While Broadcast, thanks to Sports, is still the top advertising platform, streaming has taken over the second spot ahead of traditional cable networks. FAST and AVOD are plucking more dollars. Then come macro and measurement issues, respectively.
The other concerns? “The line between premium and user generated content is blurring, which has led to, and will continue to lead to, a glut of supply,” the MoffettNathanson analysts share, as well as a positive assessment of the current connected TV landscape.
All of this means further audience fragmentation, which is good for agencies. And, retail media networks are poised to increase in importance.
This means broadcast media will need to keep their eyes on many developments, all while seeking to maintain and grow their current revenue.
