Virtual MVPD YouTube TV will surpass both Charter’s Spectrum and Comcast’s Xfinity within the next 24 months to become the largest pay-TV operator in the United States.
That’s the conclusion of new forecasts courtesy of Omdia, which state that the change will come in 2027 — marking the first time a vMVPD will claim the top position in the evolving cable television marketplace.
Omdia’s latest analysis also offers a sobering two-year trend for the nation’s two largest MVPDs — something that could eventually play a role in retransmission consent revenue for the nation’s broadcast TV station owners.
US Pay-TV Market Snapshot (End of 2025)
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Charter: 11.4 million subscribers
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Comcast: 10.6 million subscribers
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YouTube TV: 9.3 million subscribers
US Pay-TV Market Forecast (2027)
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YouTube TV: 10.4 million subscribers
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Charter: 10.0 million subscribers
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Comcast: 9.2 million subscribers
Maria Rua Aguete, Head of Media and Entertainment at Omdia, comments, “YouTube TV has evolved into a full pay-TV bundle, integrating linear channels, premium networks, and marquee sports properties such as NFL Sunday Ticket. This is not just another streaming service; it is the new face of US pay TV.”
Rua Aguete notes that YouTube’s influence extends far beyond its pay-TV platform. With nearly 3 billion global users, YouTube remains the largest video ecosystem in the world by a significant margin. “Netflix may reach 300 million global subscribers, but alongside YouTube’s 3 billion users, it is not a dominant global player,” she said. “YouTube operates at a scale that no subscription service can match.”
This dual position, global video dominance plus rising pay-TV leadership, gives YouTube a unique strategic advantage in the media landscape.
Streaming: Big, Fragmented, and Intensely Competitive
Omdia’s latest subscriber data highlights a highly fragmented domestic streaming market. Even as the largest single service, Netflix accounts for just 15.7% of total U.S. SVOD subscriptions.
Streaming Leaders in 2025 (Omdia forecast)
- Netflix: 88.7 million subscribers
- Amazon Prime Video: 64.7 million
- Disney+: 55.8 million
- Paramount+: 49.4 million
- HBO Max: 29.7 million
“The idea of Netflix as a dominant streaming service is a misconception,” Rua Aguete noted. “Audience attention and spend are spread across a wide array of platforms.”
Omdia’s research shows a clear shift toward hybrid services that blend linear TV, premium channels, live sports, UGC, and on-demand content. With YouTube TV on course to lead US pay-TV and YouTube already commanding the world’s biggest video audience, the company exemplifies where the industry is heading.
