With many broadcast media C-Suites telling investors in their first quarter 2026 earnings calls that political advertising in the back half of the year will help offset first-half challenges, one may wonder just how fruitful election-oriented dollar generation will compare to prior midterm election seasons.
Madison and Wall analyst Brian Wieser has helped to answer the May . While there will certainly be growth in political ad dollars, it will be tempered — thanks to the swift consumer shift to digital, streaming and social media.
Wieser last week took a moment to revisit the political advertising outlook for 2026, based on May 19 primary election outcomes that unseated two Republicans who fell out of favor with President Trump.
Wieser’s conclusion? In 2026 some $13.8 billion in U.S. political ad revenue will be seen, compared to $12.6 billion in 2022. That represents 9% growth. But, he says, it is slower than the 13% increase in 2024 when compared to the 2020 presidential cycle.
While that’s certainly a big takeaway, the rise of digital political ad revenue is perhaps the largest, headline-grabbing conclusion from the advertising trends specialist based in Portland, Ore.
“In the 2026 midterm cycle, we expect digital advertising to reach 50% of total political spend for the first time,” Wieser predicts.
Historically, local TV captured the largest share of political budgets, but in 2024, Wieser says, digital formats were already the largest portion of political ad revenue, representing 46% of the total.
In 2022, the prior midterm cycle, local television was still the largest part of total budgets. Today, search, social media and YouTube are actively competing for political ad dollars with linear television and, in some respects, radio. Connected TV’s share of election-oriented advertising in 2026 is forecast by Wieser to grow 40% from 2022, to $1.85 billion in the U.S.
By comparison, local TV political advertising revenue was $108 million in Q1 2026 — up 18% compared with the first quarter of 2022. While that’s positive, it cannot be denied that Connected TV is a significant beneficiary of consumer and marketer pivots that speak to the broader question of just how influential over-the-air broadcast TV is today for a political candidate.
On a greater level, President Trump’s involvement with a candidate could impact political dollars tied to the race, Wieser opines.
As such, “there are not as many competitive races remaining as there could have been. That is one of the main reasons we expect political ad spending to grow modestly compared with the previous midterm cycle, rather than accelerate dramatically. Political spending will still be a meaningful tailwind for many sellers of advertising in 2026, but the biggest gains will be concentrated in the races where competition, outside money, and Trump’s involvement all line up.”
