Pandora fiscal 2013 Q3 good; Q4 estimate sends shares down

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PandoraFor the third quarter of fiscal 2013, total revenue was $120.0 million, a 60% YOY increase. Ad revenue was $106.3 million, a 61% YOY increase. Subscription and other revenue was $13.7 million, a 52% YOY increase.


Pandora reported a fiscal third-quarter profit of $2.05 million, or a penny a share, on revenue of $120 million, compared with earnings of $638,000, or break-even on a per-share basis, on sales of $75 million in the same period a year ago. Excluding one-time items, Pandora would have earned 5 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast the Internet radio company to earn a penny a share on $117.1 million in revenue.

Pandora’s shares fell as much as 22% in after-hours trading as the company forecast fiscal Q4 loss, excluding one-time items, of between 6 cents and 9 cents a share, on revenue between $120 million and $123 million. Analysts had forecast Pandora to earn a penny a share on sales of $130.2 million for Q4.

Total listener hours grew 67% to 3.56 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2013, compared to 2.12 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2012.

“This quarter exceeded our expectations as we monetized mobile at record levels and grew total mobile revenue 112%,” stated Joe Kennedy, Chairman & CEO of Pandora. “During the quarter we launched Pandora 4.0, the biggest redesign on the iOS and Android platforms ever, bringing new, innovative and enhanced functionality to mobile devices for the first time for both users and advertisers.”

4Q13 Guidance: Revenue is expected to be in the range of $120 million to $123 million.

Fiscal 2013 Guidance: Revenue is expected to be in the range of $422 million to $425 million.

RBR-TVBR observation: Pandora, which went public last year, has struggled with the paradox of a larger audience means more royalty fees. It may be able to turn that around if IRFA gets signed. If it keeps making advertisers happy with better mobile options, fiscal 2014 may be rosy.