A new 2024 analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Kagan unit finds that the U.S. broadcast station industry is expected to reach $36.68 billion in total advertising revenue in 2024. This represents an 8.4% increase from $33.84 billion in 2023. Yet, the Automotive category will remain soft.
For publicly traded companies such as Audacy Inc., which in the last several quarters has been more dependent on automotive dollars than its radio industry peers, that’s downbeat news.
However, new core ad categories ranging from pharmaceuticals, telecom and professional services present opportunities for both radio and television station owners looking to fill avails where political advertising can’t be found.
While those ad categories are strong, retailers and travel, respectively, are just as soft as automotive.
As such, 2024 could be a year of imbalance for broadcast media, with some companies perhaps seeing better ad-dollar performance than others, absent new business growth.
For Kagan, “The radio station business has been challenged to remain relevant and part of national ad budgets, although it is still relatively strong in the local ad markets.”
Yet, the national struggle’s continuation into 2024 means, as Kagan Research projects, the U.S. radio industry will experience a tiny 0.9% decline in ad revenue, to $11.86 billion.
While this is roughly $1 billion higher than radio ad revenue in the pandemic-fueled ad recession of 2020, it is approximately $2 billion lower than pre-pandemic levels.
THE LOCAL TV PROGNOSTICATION
Mirroring the U.S. radio industry, the local ad market for broadcast television continues to be stronger than the national side of the spot ad business for 2024, with major brands and ad agencies shifting budgets to streaming, mobile and social media platforms.
There’s also the fact that, unlike Radio, broadcast TV revenue includes gross retransmission consent and virtual sub fees. Growth continues at a breakneck pace, and Kagan forecasts these fees are expected to generate $15.22 billion in revenue this year.
TV station traditional subscriber gross retransmission and virtual sub-fee revenue was estimated at $15.09 billion in 2023, up 1% from $14.91 billion estimated in 2022.
