Just one day after Beasley Media Group released a dismal FY 2025 earnings report and Spanish Broadcasting System indicated it is moving ahead with a voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, BIA Advisory Services is increasing its total local ad revenue forecast by $2.8 million.
How? The short answer is political advertising in a mid-term election year.
BIA now projects total local ad revenue to reach $184.5 billion, reflecting roughly 8.1% year-over-year growth compared to 2025.
In Q4 2025, BIA estimated $181.7 billion in local ad revenue this year.
The increase, BIA says, is driven by stronger-than-expected performance in mobile (particularly social), video, and streaming, along with political ad spend, and advertising technology. In particular, BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political spending, creating “substantial revenue opportunities” across broadcast television, linear cable, Connected TV/OTT, radio, and direct mail.
Still, excluding political advertising, the 2026 forecast is now $176.1 billion, up from the
previous $172.7 billion.
Just don’t look to core radio advertising revenue growth as the engine driving the increase.
“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over
the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,”
said Senan Mele, VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis at BIA. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”
Mele looks at long-term growth and sees it is fueled by key verticals including real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services.
BIA believes total local advertising will surpass $222 billion by 2030, based on its estimates.
Meanwhile, BIA notes that it now considers Digital Out of Home (DOOH) a distinct
media category within the forecast, rather than grouping it with traditional Out of Home
(OOH). “This change highlights the increasing importance of digital, programmatic, and
location-based media in local campaigns,” it says.
While Radio has its very public challenges, BIA believes it remains “a stable local medium, with additional opportunities emerging through digital audio, including streaming and podcasts.”
Says Mele, “Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming. The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with
targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and
ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals.”
