We’ve run some stories from stock analysts who have predicted the FCC’s upcoming spectrum auction will bring in much less money than expected from the wireless carriers.
Preston Padden, respected former television station executive and now a consultant, says those predictions are wrong.
Our latest item came from Motley Fool, which predicted bidding could total some $10 billion less than original commission projections of $45 billion.
Speaking “from personal knowledge,” he tells RBR+TVBR in an interview the predictions “are inaccurate.”
Analysts were equally wrong in their predictions about the AWS-3 auction last year, he tells us. They predicted bids totaling about $20 billion would come in, and the gross auction bids actually totaled $43 billion, he said.
Padden, who until recently headed the “Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition,” says the FCC will soon release a list of spectrum buyers.
Television companies were keeping their auction plans to themselves even before the so-called “quiet period” kicked-in. Asked about this strategy, he said: “When you walk into a car dealer you don’t say ‘I hope to spend as much as possible to buy the car.’”
For broadcasters, Padden characterizes the auction “as a once in a lifetime opportunity.” He referenced several stations now in court fighting for the right to take part in the 600 MHz auction, noting that in their pleadings they say their companies will be irreparably harmed if they are shut out.
“There are going to be tens of billions of dollars” going to broadcasters in all size markets from the auction proceeds, he predicts.
As for the carriers, Padden, the auction will include current carriers as well as those aspiring to be wireless carriers, as well as companies aggregating spectrum, like Dish.
“Spectrum is their lifeblood. They have to have it and there is no more in the pipeline.”
Padden worked for companies like Metromedia, Disney, Fox and American Sky Broadcasting, which merged into Dish Network. He’s now consulting television owners on auction strategies.
