Curious as to why your station’s ratings may be “wobbling”? New data released from the U.S. Census Bureau, which reflects population estimates for cities and towns as of July 1, 2023, show that while large cities are regaining residents following the COVID-19 pandemic, there was strong growth in areas adjacent to urbanized areas.
The data, released Thursday, also show that the nation’s population is growing strongest in the Sun Belt states.
That said, new population estimates show that some of the top gainers are now on the outskirts of metropolitan areas — or in rural areas.
This shows that broadcast media relying on data that may be five years old could be making mistakes, given the geographic shifts in population growth compared to pre-pandemic July 1, 2019.
The U.S. Census Bureau notes, “Many large cities with populations of 50,000 or more saw notable population declines over the course of the pandemic. Although their losses have slowed to pre-pandemic levels, their populations continued to decrease in 2023.”
Yet the estimates also show that, on average, many small and midsize U.S. cities with populations under 50,000 saw relatively higher growth rates in 2023 than in 2019.
Large cities generally grew at slower rates.
Overall, the most populous cities continued to return to pre-pandemic trends thanks to increased growth rates and smaller population declines.
Population Growth in Cities by Size
As of July 1, 2019, cities with populations of 50,000 or more were the fastest growing on average. Fast-forward to 2023, they grew slower on average than all other population categories other than small cities with fewer than 5,000 people.
Large cities gained an average of 741 people in 2019, the year before the pandemic, but only 498 from 2022 to 2023 – nearly 40% less (Tables 1 and 2).
Changing Trends in Large Cities
Many large cities with populations of 50,000 or more saw notable population declines during the pandemic. Their losses slowed to pre-pandemic levels but their populations continued to drop in 2023.
Eight of the 15 largest-declining U.S. cities in 2019 were also on the list of top losing cities in 2023. New York experienced its smallest numeric decline (77,763) since 2019 (Tables 3 and 4).
Baltimore, which ranked second among the largest-declining cities in 2019, came in at No. 8 and cut its population decline in half in 2023. The cities of San Jose and Jackson, Miss., also dropped in rank as their population losses slowed by more than 60% and 30%, respectively.
Annual population growth rates in the five biggest U.S. cities had largely returned to pre-COVID-19 trends in 2023.
The nation’s largest city, New York, saw its population continue to decline from a drop of 0.6% in 2019 to 3.5% in 2021. By 2023, the decline had moderated to a 0.9% change — closer to pre-COVID-19 trends.
The population growth in two of the largest cities in the Sun Belt — Houston and Phoenix — slowed during the pandemic. Houston even saw its 0.1% growth in 2019 shift to a 0.5% decline in 2021 before its population began to climb again. In 2023, Houston grew 0.5% faster than in 2019.
Surprisingly, Phoenix’s population continued to grow during the 2019-2023 period, but at a slower rate aside from a small bump in 2022. Overall, Phoenix’s population growth slowed from 1.6% in 2019 to 0.4% four years later.
New Population Trends Emerging
The pandemic impacted population patterns in many cities across the nation. By 2023, when the pandemic emergency ended, population trends in some cities had changed relative to the prior year:
Large Northeastern cities that on average had been losing population grew and caught up with the growth rate of large Western cities, increasing by an average 0.2% between 2022 and 2023.
Big cities in the Midwest also saw a reversal of population declines and grew an average of 0.1% after dropping 0.2% between 2021 and 2022.
Across much of the nation, mid-sized cities and towns with populations of at least 10,000 but fewer than 50,000 people saw growth. Cities this size in the Northeast continued to lose population (0.1% average decline).
Mid-sized cities and towns in the South showed relative stability, growing at the same average rate of 1.5% in 2023 as in 2022 and at a faster pace than in any other U.S region.
Similarly, small places in the South with populations of 5,000 but fewer than 10,000, averaged a slightly lower growth rate (1.3%) than mid-sized cities in the same region.
Small towns in the South experienced the largest growth among all small towns in the U.S. with an average increase of 0.6%. Losses slowed in Northeastern and Midwestern small cities (Tables 5 and 6).
The latest U.S. Census report was authored by Amel Toukabri, Chief of the Local Government Estimates and Migration Processing Branch in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. Crystal Delbé, James Kent Pugh, and Matthew Erickson — survey statisticians in the Population Division — also participated in the production of the report.
