Global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.2% this year to $1.16 trillion, reflecting a downgrade of half a percentage point from a March forecast released by financial research firm WARC.
With the domestic ad market also seeing a half-point reduction in growth, increased market volatility has emerged as the spectre spooking the planet’s marketing leaders.
In the U.S., ad market prospects were cut by half a point, to 5.2%, by WARC. That is less than half that recorded in 2024 (+13.5%).
“The U.S. ad market – the largest worldwide with a 39.0% share – faces major headwinds including tariff uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, lower consumer demand and stagflation,” WARC said.
On a global scale, key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are impacting advertising growth, with companies in each ad category expected to cut ad spend this year. At the same time, ad spend growth across technology and CPG brands is muted compared to previous rates.
“The latest downgrade is attributable to a reticence to commit ad budgets across key markets in the second quarter,” says James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC. “This cooling is underpinned by tariff trepidations and ebbing business and consumer confidence, prompting advertisers to front-load budgets and reallocate spend geographically, particularly towards Canada, Australia, and Europe.”
McDonald adds that trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies. “Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins,” he said. “Tech firms face growing uncertainty despite continued investment, and CPG brands are leaning into retail media as supply chains come under pressure. Across the board, agility is the new imperative.”
WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.
Linear TV spend is expected to fall by 6.3% this year – a drop exacerbated by 2024 major sporting and political events. Notably, 2025 marks the first year that retail media will command a greater share of global ad spend than linear TV.
