First it was MAGNA. Now, WARC has decreased its global ad market growth forecast. And, it models three scenarios based on “differing severities of deterioration in underlying market conditions.”
The new analysis, based on latest advertising spend data from 100 markets worldwide and projections of advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points, shows WARC adjusting its ad growth forecasts for the first quarter.
For the period ending Monday, March 31, ad growth worldwide is expected to reach 6.7%, down from the 7.6% projection WARC earlier projected.
In Q2, slower growth will also be seen, with 6.3% ad growth now forecast; WARC’s original Q2 ad growth forecast was at 7%.
This, WARC notes, is equivalent to a $19.8 billion cut.
Driving the adjustments is concerns over “prolonged stagflation” — a topic that has returned to conversations with ad executives, media brokers and corporate comptrollers RBR+TVBR has spoken with in recent weeks.
WARC even expresses fears of an outright recession in some key nations, and the Trump Administration could be playing a key role as new trade tariffs could hamper global ad market growth in the second half of 2025.
Automakers, retailers and tech brands are most exposed, WARC says.
Outstanding domestic antitrust rulings against Google and TikTok also add to a climate of uncertainty for media strategists, WARC adds.
For the year, WARC estimates the global ad market will be worth $1.15 trillion this year, an absolute rise of $72.9 billion (up 6.7%) from a strong 2024.
Alternative modelling based on a pessimistic OECD scenario further cuts ad market growth, to 6.4% this year.
Focusing on the U.S. ad market, WARC expects it to post “a solid rise” in 2025, of 5.7%.
However, the U.S. ad market growth is tempered compared to the strong political ad-fueled growth of 13.1% seen in 2024.
Here’s the good news: Contrary to OECD expectations for the U.S. economy, ad market growth should accelerate in 2026, with spend rising 6.5% (4.4% in real terms) as activity increases around the FIFA World Cup (hosted across North America) and federal mid-term elections.
Lastly, linear TV is anticipated to have a better 2026 than 2025. However, ad spend is in retreat on a global level — an existential matter being addressed in the U.S. with the rollout of ATSC 3.0 digital broadcast technology as several European companies consider 5G Broadcast as a solution.
