Cable’s gross advertising revenue decreased by 5.9% in 2024, reaching $20.2 billion. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, that’s the lowest dollar total since 2007 and is directly linked to reduced ratings and increased competition from ad-supported streaming services.
What’s the outlook through 2029? S&P offered its best guess while also sharing all-important cable network subscriber projections in an environment when broadcast TV is at a pivotal evolutionary point in its 77-year history.
For revenue, despite various challenges, Senior Research Analyst Scott Robson predicts advertising revenue is expected to perform better in even years. That’s due to major tentpole live events such as the Olympic Games and forthcoming election seasons. But, when one subtracts the non-cyclical ad dollars, a continuous decline is anticipated, with S&P concurring with other analysts that broadcast TV’s core ad dollar conundrum isn’t easily solvable.
Revenue is projected to fall to $16.3 billion by 2029. That’s nearly $4 billion lower than 2024, and pushes the dollar total far below 2007.
It also sends a message to broadcast and cable TV station owners that free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) channels and AVOD-based streaming platform presence is all but essential to remain future-proof.
S&P notes how the cable television business is dealing with everything from “cord-cutting” and reduced audience targeting compared to digital ads. There’s also competition from ad-supported streaming platforms like Netflix and Disney+. “These factors are expected to cause a 5.2% decline in gross advertising revenue in 2025, with further declines projected through 2029,” S&P notes.
Meanwhile, Robson crunched the numbers when it comes to subscribers, and finds that domestic basic cable networks shed subscribers in 2024 at an average rate of 7.1% as the pay TV universe continues to contract. “This marks the ninth consecutive year of the declining subscribers for the industry as consumers trade in their traditional pay TV subscriptions for streaming services and other digital options,” he says.
The decline in subscribers is expected to continue, with major networks like C-SPAN and Food Network projected to lose 15 to 20 million subscribers by 2029.
The average cable network is anticipated to see a 5.4% annual decline in subscribers from 2025 to 2029.
