Now that Paramount has settled its antitrust concerns with California Attorney General Rob Bonta and other state AGs who joined him, the company led by David Ellison is ever-closer to completing its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.
Financial analysts at MoffettNathanson were curious as to the impact of this deal. The answer? The combined Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery would have had an approximately 13% share of total TV viewership by distributor in the first half of 2026. This would put “Paramount WBD” in a tie with YouTube for the top spot — “underscoring the scale of the combined entity.”
Disney would have 10% of total TV viewership by distributor, while FOX and Roku combine for 10% when putting those entities together; FOX represents 7% of total TV viewership, with Roku contributing 3%. Netflix had 8% total TV viewership by distributor, Nielsen data show.
But, when MoffettNathanson zooms in on streaming, one sees a different story. “Even combined across Paramount+, Pluto TV, HBO Max, and Discovery+, Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery would have accounted for only about 8% of streaming viewership in the first half of 2026, trailing nearly every other major streaming competitor,” Senior Analyst Robert Fishman said.
However, Fishman added that he thinks the gap “is the core rationale for the deal in the first place as Paramount needs to add DTC scale.”
On the direct-to-consumer side, Fishman expects Paramount+ and HBO Max to be fully integrated by 2028, with “cannibalization in its first year followed by two years of revenue synergies” as the combined service becomes more competitive than either standalone offering, particularly internationally. This will attract incremental subscribers, Fishman reasons.
Put it all together, and MoffettNathanson estimates the Paramount/WBD deal will be dilutive to EPS by -49% in 2028 and -6% in 2029.
“By 2030, we estimate pro forma PSKY-WBD EPS will be 43% ahead of standalone Paramount Skydance,” Fishman concludes. “We believe this highlights how a more formidable combined competitor — particularly in streaming, where each company is currently subscale — should drive higher profits over time, even as elevated net debt keeps the underlying balance sheet health in question near-term.”
