ARLINGTON, VA. — Freshly compiled data from Bond & Pecaro shared Monday during a Media Finance Management conference session show that, when subtracting political advertising-fueled years, net television advertising revenue will decline in 2027.
How significant is the dip?
The total dollars expected in two years are lower than those seen in 2023, exacerbating broadcast TV’s need to grow its core advertising revenue as ATSC 3.0-related expenses grow and retransmission consent revenue could drop substantially in the coming years.
Specifically, Bond & Pecaro projects net television advertising revenue in 2027 total $14.662 billion.
This compares to $15.273 billion for 2025; $15.12 billion in 2023; and $15.83 billion in 2021.
With an overflow crowd present, Bond & Pecaro Principals Matt Lochte and Tim Pecaro were joined by Senior Analyst Ben Steinbock, who also note that the record-setting political ad dollars in 2024 will still be robust — and grow. The issue? That growth will not fully compensate for core weakness.
Sinclair CFO Lucy Rutishauser said at an earlier MFM session on Monday that the prospect of no incumbent running for U.S. President in 2028 could fuel spending. Bond & Pecoro agrees. Similarly, in 2026 political ad spending could ramp up from mid-term election spending by both Democrats and Republicans.
Will that spending include broadcast television? The projected total net revenue for TV in 2026 is $17.82 billion. For 2028, it jumps to $19.31 billion. For comparison, the 2024 total was a stunning $19.939 billion.
Bond & Pecaro also shared its consensus radio revenue projections. And, they offer little in the way of joy for the industry, with over-the-air advertising totals trending downward every year through 2028. This will be seen even as the digital share of the total ad pie grows to 30% by 2028.
