In a keynote address at the Radio Show in Indianapolis, Bob Hoffman argued that online advertising claims are fraudulent. Mark Ramsey says that Hoffman is both living in the past and less-than-comprehensive in his use of available data.
According to Ramsey, Hoffman’s “curmudgeonly” remarks were confined to display advertising – an easy target because that portion of the digital universe is in fact going downhill, and as of 2013 comprised only 19% if it, according to IAB. Ramsey compared that to search (43%), mobile (17% and rising) and video (7%) and rising just to mention a few other categories.
Part of Ramsey’s argument was that if Hoffman is correct and digital advertising is worthless, than the entire advertising industry must be certifiably insane, and used a chart from Business Insider to make the case.
The chart details ad revenue growth for different media categories from 2013 through 2018 – and radio actually has a place there upon which to hang its hat. It is expected to register a modest gain while TV and newspaper head in the wrong direction.
The BI prediction also sees digital display on the downswing – in fact, it’s the worst of all cited categories, even worse than newspaper. But its gig growth areas are all digital: mobile, social and desktop video.
Here are predictions for selected categories:
49.7%: mobile
18.0%: social
15.1%: desktop video
4.1%: non-digital (excluding broadcast and print)
2.3%: radio
0.7%: magazines
-1.8%: TV
-4.4%: newspaper
-5.4%: digital display
Source: Business Insider Intelligence Forecast
RBR-TVBR observation: Do you happen to remember America’s introduction to cinematic Kevin Bacon? For us, it was in “Animal House.” During the chaotic demolition of the homecoming parade at the end of the movie, it is Bacon’s character who stands amidst the mayhem shouting “All is well, all is well!” and ends up getting trampled flatter than a 5.4” floppy disk.
You don’t have to look at a chart to witness the ascent of digital – it is all around us, and if you are a functioning human being hooked up to the electrical grid, you almost can’t help but notice it.
The good news about digital is that there is nothing stopping traditional media companies from competing in that arena – indeed the smart ones already are. To cite just two, we are witnessing an increasing percentage of digital revenue going into the coffers of Salem Communications and Townsquare Media.
Those two traditional radio companies have the right idea. Your choice: follow them or get flattened.
Completely Random RBR-TVBR factoid: The author once took trumpet in hand and performed with a band at one of the annual Cancer Balls held in Washington DC. The staged was shared with, among others, James Fonda, who appeared with Jack Nicholson in “Easy Rider” who appeared with Kevin Bacon in “A Few Good Men,” placing the author within three degrees of Kevin Bacon. In case you were wondering.
