A newly released analysis by media buying firm Guideline finds that linear TV ad spend decreased significantly in the fourth quarter.
In fact, it marked the biggest dip since the company began ad spend tracking in 2017.
During the fourth quarter, linear ad spend decreased by 7% from the same period in 2022.
The resulting CAGR reached -3.4% between Q4 2017 and Q4 2023.
As Guideline Insights Director Nicole McCurnin sees it, Q4 2023 “represented a microcosm of the national Linear TV landscape.” She said, “Live Sports ad revenue and market share alike crested, thanks to the NFL, while entertainment programming waned to a trough, amid a challenging climate of labor strikes and streaming services.”
As the majority of Q4 expenditure, Entertainment programming also posted the softest Q4 ad spend in the dataset. With the uptick in streaming services, Entertainment’s majority share has fallen overtime, moving from 63% in Q4 2017 to 46% in Q4 2023.
In the last three Q4 periods, News represented 9% of expenditure. Guideline expects News investment to rise in 2024, given the presidential election cycle. For instance, in 2020 which featured the onset of COVID-19 and the last presidential election, News totaled 11% of Q4 expenditure.
Guideline also offered topline analysis of product category activity. It found that only the Pharma group widened its investment in Q4 2023, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, yielding 3.5% growth.
Retail was flat, Guideline shared.
