You’ve seen and heard the recent quarterly earnings results from the nation’s largest, publicly traded radio broadcasting companies. For many, digital advertising growth is robust. However, that hasn’t offset continued weakness in core advertising for linear, over-the-air stations. Next year is expected to be a bit better.
That’s based on BIA Advisory Services’ first peek into 2026, discussed in a Thursday afternoon webinar featuring Marketron CEO Jimshade Chaudhari and BIA Advisory Services VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele.
And, what local media spending could look like next year is refreshingly positive for radio and digital platforms alike. It’s welcomed news after a dismal period of declines and cautious spending.
On the heels of a pessimistic update to 2025 spending, Radio broadcast revenue is projected to grow 1.83% in 2026, reversing 2025’s modest declines; Radio’s digital revenue is forecast to climb even more.
‘DUMP TRUMP’ OR ‘MAGA WARRIOR’: THE DOLLARS WILL FLOW
As shared in the webinar, BIA forecasts $7.9 billion in total political advertising across local media in 2026 — making it one of the largest cycles in recent history. With 435 House seats, 35 Senate races, 36 governorships, and 30 attorney general offices on the ballot, political campaigns are expected to compete aggressively for local reach.
Chaudhari said the opportunity is too large to overlook and urged broadcasters to prepare now by refining inventory strategies and bundling over-the-air, digital, and Connected TV offerings.
Even beyond political spending, the growth trajectory for radio digital and streaming video platforms continues to strengthen. BIA projects radio digital revenue will increase by 4.5% in 2025, excluding political ads, and accelerate to 5.01% growth in 2026.
According to Nielsen data, advertisers receive a $10 return on ad spend for every dollar invested in radio. Yet, recent analysis from groups such as Borrell Research suggest marketers remain cool to radio and today are favoring on-demand and streaming video delivery vehicles.
Now, armed with fresh data suggesting Radio’s health will improve in the coming months, AM and FM and streaming audio AEs can begin attracting holiday-themed ad commitments with renewed vigor. For the 2025 holiday season, BIA projects U.S. retail sales will rise 1.2% between 2024 and the coming period. And, advertisers are expected to launch campaigns earlier than ever, starting in October. This will capture early shoppers ahead of a later-than-usual Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday.
Lastly, BIA and Marketron shared that the holiday season will serve as a lead-in to the heavier spending environment of 2026, where the combination of election-year intensity and cross-platform momentum positions broadcasters to capture a larger share of local ad budgets.
The full webinar is available via Marketron.
