Flat and Soft: Nexstar’s Q3, Minus The Political Fuel

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The nation’s largest single owner of broadcast TV stations, a company founded with one broadcast property in Northeastern Pennsylvania nearly 30 years ago, has released its third quarter earnings report. While year-over-year comparisons are clouded by huge political ad revenue in 2024, the Q3 2025 results do indicate one big takeaway: ex-political, ad revenues were flat. It’s reflecting a continued soft environment for the core of broadcast television’s biggest revenue generator — outside of retransmission consent fees.


Nexstar Media Group‘s Q3 net revenue moved to $1.2 billion, from $1.37 billion, as the net income attributable to shareholders shifted to $70 million ($2.17 per diluted share), from $187 million ($5.27).

The EPS easily beat the $1.83 estimate offered by one analyst reporting to Yahoo! Finance, as the revenue came in right on target based on the consensus estimate of 4 analysts.

Adjusted EBITDA moved to $358 million from $510 million during the quarter, with Adjusted Free Cash Flow coming in at $166 million, compared to $327 million in Q3 2024, when political advertising rocketed the company’s profits to new heights.

Yet, investors started Thursday’s trading on the Nasdaq GlobalSelect market, where “NXST” trades, in sell mode, as Nexstar shares declined by nearly 3% within the first 15 minutes of activity. While NXST is down from the $211 range seen nearly three months ago, Nexstar shares have enjoyed strong year-over-year growth and just six months ago were at $154.52.

Like the radio industry’s biggest single owner of broadcast properties, Nexstar does have a debt leverage conundrum to resolve. The owner of WGN Radio, the NewsNation cable television network born out of WGN America, and the controlling interest holder in The CW Network did shrink its total debt to $6.36 billion at the end of Q3 from $6.52 billion at the close of 2024. Still, nearly $1.72 billion in 5.625% Senior Unsecured Notes are due in 2027. As the company awaits regulatory approval and the ability to file with the FCC its transfer of control documents for its game-changing proposed merger with TEGNA — which reveals its Q3 2025 results on Monday — the total net leverage ratio of 3.09x may be on the minds of some investors.

While the overall TV advertising environment is tepid, midterm election spending projections for 2026 are already being looked at as a bright spot and contributor to lowering the net leverage. But, Q3 net income was negatively impacted by the non-recurring resolution of “a disputed customer claim” and equity investments tied to the performance of the TV Food Network LLC. Nexstar holds a 31.3% interest in that company.


NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP KEY Q3 2025 EARNINGS TAKEAWAYS:

  • Net revenue met the consensus estimate of 4 analysts polled by Yahoo! Finance
  • Distribution Revenue slipped to $709 million from $719 million, due to MVPD subscriber attrition and “the non-recurring resolution of a disputed customer claim.”
  • Advertising Revenue was effectively flat on a non-political basis as growth in network and digital advertising and the absence of political crowd-out largely offset soft local advertising driven by the absence of the Olympics in the quarter versus the prior year.

 

What can investors look forward to in the fourth quarter and in 2026? In prepared comments ahead of a Thursday morning earnings call, Sook would only share, “Looking forward, we are focused on completing our upcoming distribution renewals, closing our acquisition of TEGNA Inc., and capitalizing on the 2026 mid-term election political advertising opportunity, all of which we anticipate will drive shareholder value.”

President/COO Michael Biard added in the earnings call that “very low single-digit growth,” ex-political, is on the way for the fourth quarter.

With Nexstar Networks President Sean Compton serve as the Television Chair for Forecast 2026, on Wednesday (11/12) in New York, attendees could be privy to more detailed visibility for the company that seeks to acquire TEGNA, as well as its peers.

Biard and CFO Lee Ann Gliha joined Sook on the Nexstar Q3 earnings call for investors and analysts at 9am Central on Thursday. Sook began the call by reviewing the previously announced details of Nexstar’s planned merger with TEGNA. Expectations for closing the deal in the second half of 2026 remain in place, and keeping the cash reserves in place to fund the transaction is a priority, reducing and/or eliminating any stock buyback initiatives.

HEARD ON THE Q3 EARNINGS CALL

The first question came from equity research analyst Dan Kurnos of Benchmark Company. “The pieces are falling into place,” Sook said in response to a question about the timeline for the anticipated Nexstar-TEGNA merger. He pointed to an Eighth Circuit ruling eliminating the FCC’s “Top Four” rule, and the FCC’s aim to “allow businesses to compete.” In Washington, Nexstar’s legal and lobbying teams have spent a lot of time pushing for deregulatory rulemakings. That deregulation is expected in the first half of 2026, Sook believes. And, Sook says, the transaction “is in the public interest.”

Benjamin Soff of Deutsche Bank asked about what the industry peers will do and what broadcast TV’s landscape will look like in the years ahead. “A good strong industry needs to have good strong companies leading it, and we believe we are the poster child,” Sook said, pointing to local content development. That said, Nexstar can’t do it alone, as Biard added, “We’re not afraid of competition by any stretch of the imagination.” This includes “Big Media” such as the broadcast networks and their owned stations, and “Big Tech,” he said.

Wells Fargo’s Steven Cahall had two strategic questions, including what the end of the 2020s could look like with respect to post-TEGNA merger priorities. Further details would be under consideration for Nexstar, continuing a quest to grow once deregulation happens.

Craig Huber then asked Sook about $300 million of synergies through the TEGNA merger, wanting to know how Nexstar calculated that figure.

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