One of the most exclusive organizations in this nation is the United States Senate. It is generally difficult to get in, particularly for residents of states with a large population. But once you’re there, you’re in for a good six years. That is six long years in which to build the case for getting another six-year membership. However, an increasingly disgruntled American electorate has been in a throw-the-bums out mood for the last three election cycles, and there is every reason to believe that that over-riding sour mood will be in place again next year when campaigning begins in earnest. Here is an early look at what’s at stake on the Senate side of the Capitol Building.
For starters, Democrats have a small majority advantage at the moment, holding 51 seats as well as the general allegiance of the body’s two independent members. However, they have far more seats on the table this time – of the 33 seats in play, 23 are filled by a Democrat or Democrat-leaning independent. And the Democrats that came to Washington on the Democratic groundswell election of 2006, many of whom scored upsets in battleground or generally-Republican-leaning states, are getting their first re-election test. If the Republicans can turn even a few of them into one-hit wonders (to use the radio term), then the balance of power in the chamber may shift yet again.
Democrats are also facing an uphill battle when it comes to defending open seats – they have already lost six incumbents to retirement, compared to the Republican total of three. However, some of the Republican candidates are actually facing primary challenges from the right, so it is just possible that in some Republican states, the advantage of incumbency may be ceded to Tea Party uprising.
In other words, it is way too early to make any solid predictions about how this overall battle will play out next year. But a few predictions will ring true. For one, it is better to have a Senate race than not – a statewide election for a prized seat that is both a scarce resource and a matter of nationwide interest means the possibility of advertising revenue for broadcast outlets. For another, it is far better for advertising venues to be in a state where the seat is hotly-contested.
That said, let’s run the list for 2012. Spring 2011 ratings from The Cook Political Report are used for an early look at race expectations – all of which should be taken with the salt shaker handy and ready for use.
Alabama
No race
Alaska
No race
Arizona
Open seat
Retiring: Kyl, Jon (R-AZ):
Cook early call: Likely Republican
Arkansas
No race
California
Incumbent: Feinstein, Dianne (D-CA):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
Colorado
No race
Connecticut
Open seat
Retiring: Lieberman, Joseph I. (ID-CT):
Cook early call: Likely Democrat
Delaware
Incumbent: Carper, Thomas R. (D-DE):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
Florida
Incumbent: Nelson, Bill (D-FL):
Cook early call: Lean Democrat
Georgia
No race
Hawaii
Open seat
Retiring: Akaka, Daniel K. (D-HI):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
Idaho
No race
Illinois
No race
Indiana
Incumbent: Lugar, Richard G. (R-IN):
Cook early call: Likely Republican
Iowa
No race
Kansas
No race
Kentucky
No race
Louisiana
No race
Maine
Incumbent: Snowe, Olympia J. (R-ME):
Cook early call: Likely Republican
Maryland
Incumbent: Cardin, Benjamin L. (D-MD):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
Massachusetts
Incumbent: Brown, Scott P. (R-MA):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Michigan
Incumbent: Stabenow, Debbie (D-MI):
Cook early call: Likely Democrat
Minnesota
Incumbent: Klobuchar, Amy (D-MN):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
Mississippi
Incumbent: Wicker, Roger F. (R-MS):
Cook early call: Solid Republican
Missouri
Incumbent: McCaskill, Claire (D-MO):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Montana
Incumbent: Tester, Jon (D-MT):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Nebraska
Incumbent: Nelson, Ben (D-NE):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Nevada
Incumbent: Heller, Dean (R-NV):
Cook early call: Toss Up
New Hampshire
No race
New Jersey
Incumbent: Menendez, Robert (D-NJ):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
New Mexico
Open seat
Retiring: Bingaman, Jeff (D-NM):
Cook early call: Toss Up
New York
Incumbent: Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (D-NY):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
North Carolina
No race
North Dakota
Open seat
Retiring: Conrad, Kent (D-ND):
Cook early call: Likely Republican
Ohio
Incumbent: Brown, Sherrod (D-OH):
Cook early call: Lean Democrat
Oklahoma
No race
Oregon
No race
Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Casey, Robert P., Jr. (D-PA):
Cook early call: Likely Democrat
Rhode Island
Incumbent: Whitehouse, Sheldon (D-RI):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
South Carolina
No race
South Dakota
No race
Tennessee
Incumbent: Corker, Bob (R-TN):
Cook early call: Solid Republican
Texas
Open seat
Retiring: Hutchison, Kay Bailey (R-TX):
Cook early call: Likely Republican
Utah
Incumbent: Hatch, Orrin G. (R-UT):
Cook early call: Solid Republican
Vermont
Incumbent: Sanders, Bernard (I-VT):
Cook early call: Solid Democrat
Virginia
Open seat
Retiring: Webb, Jim (D-VA):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Washington
Incumbent: Cantwell, Maria (D-WA):
Cook early call: Likely Democrat
West Virginia
Incumbent: Manchin, Joe, III (D-WV):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Wisconsin
Open seat
Retiring: Kohl, Herb (D-WI):
Cook early call: Toss Up
Wyoming
Incumbent: Barrasso, John (R-WY):
Cook early call: Solid Republican
