In electronics, a “lifetime” can be 3 to 6 months, much like a “season” on TV’s reality shows. But in a real lifetime, let’s say a career span of 45 years, you expect plenty of changes. Thus, the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show, January 10-13 in Las Vegas, which marks the 45th year since the trade show’s debut, reflects the overwhelming changes in the entertainment and media industries. More significantly, CES offers a big glimpse of the morphing and converging worlds of wireless delivery and anywhere availability.
Back in the beginning (and “No, I was not there.” I was in school, studying and dreaming about what future media might look like), CES was largely about TV and audio; it was an outgrowth of the Chicago Music Show, and its core “new developments” were color TV and stereo Hi-Fi.
Fast forward four-and-a-half decades: video and music still play a major role at the show – but, unlike the ’60s or even the ’90s, now the focus is on Internet-delivered content. On the exhibit floor, about 20,000 new products will debut, according to the Consumer Electronics Association, which produces CES.
Although there is no overt shunning of broadcasting, it’s notable that the hundreds of conference sessions, including a dozen keynotes and “super sessions,” feature no top radio or TV executives but plenty of wireless, mobile and Internet experts, including chiefs from Google, Intel, Microsoft, Verizon and Qualcomm. A growing emphasis on automotive entertainment brings CEOs of Ford and Mercedes-Benz to the rostrum – which has its own implications for future media advertising platforms.
That’s not to say that TV is invisible at CES. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski, in a Wednesday afternoon “one-on-one conversation” with CEA President/CEO Gary Shapiro, will delve into the future of television. If the conversation is similar to last year’s chat, the focus will be on spectrum allocation, the proposed airwaves auction and related topics affecting broadcast bandwidth. Later that afternoon, a panel on “The FCC’s Regulatory Agenda for 2012” will feature FCC Commissioners Mignon Clyburn and Robert McDowell discussing spectrum allocation, accessibility and nationwide device compatibility.
TV is also omnipresent throughout the sprawling exhibit halls (and dotted around private hotel suites), where more than 2,700 vendors will display their wares: hardware, software and other-ware. While the 3D frenzy of the past two years will be somewhat reduced, dozens of 3D developments will be seen. Several companies are expected to demonstrate “autostereoscopic” 3D (it sounds nasty, but merely means “no-glasses 3D); StreamTV will again, as it did last year, show its vision for such technology.
Elsewhere on the 3D front, LG will introduce an 84-inch 3D set that uses Ultra Definition display technology, making it a 4K TV display. Other makers are expected to exhibit similar devices, with an emphasis on making the sets even thinner. LG has also announced it will be making bigger OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) screens – part of the juggernaut toward more efficient, brighter displays.
3D will also be front and center: on the night before the show officially opens, ESPN will host a live 3D theater-sized telecast of the Bowl Championship Series college football game. ESPN has several other 3D exhibits on the show floor.
But bigger than 3D is the fast-evolving world of Internet-connected TV sets. Forecasts indicate that public appetite for getting video via their TV sets is far greater than the taste for 3D. Every major TV set maker will show its versions of ‘net-connect sets, able to browse video websites and, more importantly, access video apps – from YouTube, Hulu and hundreds of more focused suppliers.
Broadcasters will also be present via venues such as the Mobile DTV Tech Zone, coordinated by the Open Mobile Video Coalition. Among the highlights there: a look at the “Dyle” service announced last week by the Mobile Content Venture, a group of broadcasters led by NBC and Fox, which is packaging content for delivery to mobile handsets.
CES’s expected 150,000 attendees will also have a chance to see the developments in ultra-wide TV sets, the emerging 21:9 screens. There will be plenty of “cloud” products and discussions, including a look at real UltraViolet video distribution.
And “social TV” – focused on bringing together tablets and other mobile handsets to supplement linear TV viewing – will be on display in many booths and suites.
I’m also expecting impressive interface presentations, part of the effort to replace complicated remote controls and the up-down-left-right onscreen grid with new navigation tools. Voice recognition systems top this agenda; the success of Siri on the iPad 2 is spurring more development of such systems. We’ll also see new haptic and gesture-controlled approaches to a more human-friendly interface.
The growing integration of content and carriage includes CES’s “Entertainment Matters” agenda aimed at Hollywood production and distribution executives. Under the Entertainment Matters banner are several conferences. Variety’s “Technologists Eye the Future of Entertainment” features top studios technical officials. Other events include “Content in the Cloud,” produced by the Distributed Computing Industry Association, “Digital Hollywood” and “Cable at CES.” Ericsson is producing a small conference offering “tips on how to make a better user experience” for audiences using various devices. Spike TV, the Viacom Media Networks channel, is the official telecaster of 2012 CES. It will originate pre-show and on-site coverage. NBC, which has played the “official” role for the past several years, is not even exhibiting on the CES show floor.
CES has also become the vehicle for video-related Awards events. The Technical and Engineering Emmy Awards will be handed out at a Thursday banquet. Also that night, the new International Academy of Web Television will present its inaugural awards to “content creators who are changing the way we watch.”
And for the wonks who want still more policy discussions above and beyond their technology sensory overload, CES will offer a slate of opportunities. “Congress Talks Tech Policy” on Wednesday morning will include Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Lee Terry (R-NE), Cliff Stearns (R-FL), Darrell Issa (R-CA) and John Shimkus (R-IL). The CEA Innovation Policy Summit features more speakers from the FCC, Federal Trade Commission, Department of Commerce, Department of Homeland Security, Environmental Protection Agency and the Office of Management and Budget.
As usual, CES will kick off a complicated year, one in which economic, financial, political and management issues as much as technology affect the future of media. It’s what happens when you reach a mature 45th anniversary, even in a dynamic expanding industry.
NOTE: Gary Arlen will offer on-site insights from Las Vegas during CES. RBR-TVBR will have them for you nextg week.
–Gary Arlen, Arlen Communications LLC
[email protected]
