Continued strength in mobile advertising, coupled with a rise in political ad spend as the midterm elections near, has led BIA Advisory Services to update its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast. Now, it projects total local ad revenue to reach a dollar amount nearly 1% higher than its April estimate.
Now, BIA believes total local ad revenue will reach $186.1 billion, up $1.6 billion from the firm’s April 2026 estimate of $184.5 billion.
A strong flow of election-focused ad activity is tilting the scales. BIA now projects $9.7 billion in 2026 for local political spending, up from $8.4 billion in the April forecast. That’s an increase of $1.3 billion concentrated almost entirely in video.
In fact, TV OTA and TV OTT together captured $1.2 billion of that increase, reinforcing broadcast and streaming video’s role as a preferred vehicle for political campaigns.
The overall dollar prediction reflects a 9% year-over-year gain from 2025.
What about on an ex-political basis? BIA says its forecast for 2026 is now $176.4 billion, up $300,000 (or a meager 0.2%) from the prior estimate of $176.1 billion. Still, that reflects 3.9% growth over 2025 that BIA notes is broad-based.
“Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV OTA and TV OTT,” said VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele.
Legal Services was also a notable category for BIA, with dollars reaching $9.3 billion — up 4.6% from the April 2026 forecast. “Despite higher media costs and a more fragmented media environment, law firms continue to invest heavily in television, both linear and streaming, where the ability to reach large audiences and generate qualified leads continues to drive demand,” Mele said.
While broadcast media is benefiting from political ad dollars, BIA says Mobile remains its largest local media category it tracks; it is projected to grow to $45.3 billion in 2026 (excluding political). That represents an 8.9% year-over-year increase.
This growth comes as competition intensifies in A.I.-fueled search advertising, a category that local advertisers have traditionally relied on to reach consumers across mobile devices.
“Google, OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are all positioning themselves to capture a larger share of advertising tied to AI-powered search,” said Mike Boland, Executive in Residence at BIA Advisory Services. “Google’s Gemini is increasingly becoming an extension of its advertising business, while OpenAI, Amazon, and Apple are developing their own approaches to monetize search and discovery. For local advertisers, the bigger question is where consumer intent will emerge and which platforms will capture it. Mobile will be a critical battleground as that shift unfolds.”
GROWTH BY CATEGORY AS 2027 BECKONS
BIA’s first look at 2027 projects total local ad revenue of $186.5 billion, essentially flat versus 2026.
About $9 billion in underlying, nonpolitical growth is expected to nearly offset an $8.6 billion decline in political spending as the election cycle ends.
Political spending is projected to fall to approximately $1.1 billion in the 2027 off-cycle year.
Mele commented, “Political spending will decline sharply after the midterms, but the underlying nonpolitical market has continued to grow and should offset much of that decline. We expect the overall local advertising market to remain essentially flat in 2027, with continued growth across core categories helping to support the market in an off-cycle year.”
Beneath that stable topline, several categories are projected to grow well above the market average: Real estate leads at +9.8%, followed by leisure and recreation (+5.9%), automotive (+5.1%), restaurants and food (+4.4%), and financial services (+3.7%).
“2027 makes clear that the underlying growth in local advertising is broader and more durable than the political cycle alone would suggest,” said Rick Ducey, Managing Director of BIA Advisory Services. “Political spending has accelerated the market and delivered a strong two-year period for broadcast and streaming video, but the more important story is what happens beneath that surge. Core categories continue to expand their investments across an increasingly diverse media ecosystem. That sustained, multi-platform demand, and the media channels that capture it, will shape the next phase of local media.”
