The political handicappers are starting to take stock of the political situation in the 33 states that have a Senate seat on the table in 2012. We looked at reports from three different oddsmakers, and can report that there is a general consensus as to where the hot action is likely to be when push starts coming to shove next year. See update for Nebraska 12/29/11.
The Democrats have benefitted during the past couple of cycles from a favorable defensive playing board – more Republican seats than Democratic seats were up for grabs in 2008 and 2010. That is a worm that had to turn, and it did this year. Of the 33 seats in play, 23 of them currently belong either to Democrats or independents that caucus with Democrats.
It’s not as desperate as it may sound for the Democrats – many of those seats are safe – but a lot of them are not, and to compound the sheer mathematical challenge, the party is forced to deal with a significant number of retirements. And on top of THAT, the Class of 2006 is the one up for re-election – and a few of the Democratic 2006 freshmen are facing difficult first defenses of their seats.
Here’s how the 2012 races are shaping up. We looked at early projections from New York Times, CQ Politics and Cook Political Report.
Arizona
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: John Kyl (R)
Early projection: Not safe, but Republicans likely to hold the seat
California
Incumbent: Diane Feinstein (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
Connecticut
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Joe Liberman (I) caucuses with Democrats
Early projection: NYT says safe, other two likely for the Democrats
Delaware
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
Florida
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D)
Early projection: Democrats have the edge, so far
Hawaii
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Daniel Akaka (D)
Early projection: CQ things Dems will hold, others call it a toss-up
Indiana
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R)
Early projection: NYT says solid for Republicans, other think it’s likely
Maine
Incumbent: Olympia Snowe (R)
Early projection: Cook says the state is likely Republican others say it’s safe
Maryland
Incumbent: Ben Cardin (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
Massachusetts
Incumbent: Scott Brown (R)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up
Minnesota
Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
Mississippi
Incumbent: Roger Wicker (R)
Early projection: Safe for Republicans
Missouri
Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up
Montana
Incumbent: John Tester (D)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up
Nebraska
Updated 12/29/11
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Ben Nelson (D)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up before Nelson announced his retirement, will likely shift toward the Republican column when new ratings come out — Democrats are talking about getting former Sen. Bob Kerrey to run, which might at least keep the race competitive. Many Republicans currently in the running.
Nevada
Incumbent: Dean Heller (R)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up
New Jersey
Incumbent: Bob Menendez (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
New Mexico
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Jeff Bingamon (D)
Early projection: NYT thinks Dems might hold, others say toss-up
New York
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
North Dakota
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Kent Conrad (D)
Early projection: Not a given, but Republicans expected to take the seat
Ohio
Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (D)
Early projection: Likely or leaning Democratic
Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Early projection: Democrats expected to hold, but it isn’t safe
Rhode Island
Incumbent: Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
Tennessee
Incumbent: Bob Corker (R)
Early projection: Safe for Republicans
Texas
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
Early projection: Only Cook thinks Democrats have outside chance to grab this one
Utah
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R)
Early projection: Safe for Republicans
Vermont
Incumbent: Bernie Sanders (I) caucuses with Democrats
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
Virginia
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Jim Webb (D)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up
Washington
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D)
Early projection: Safe for Democrats
West Virginia
Incumbent: Joe Manchin (D)
Early projection: Two say safe, one says likely
Wisconsin
Incumbent: Open seat
Current occupant: Herb Kohl (D)
Early projection: Consensus toss-up
Wyoming
Incumbent: John Barraso (R)
Early projection: Safe for Republicans
Jim Carnegie, Publisher Note: We can’t ignore the advances in the internet space. FYI: If you have never viewed our web portal – www.RBR.com – please do so as this internet gateway will be improved in 2012.
Look for an Improved www.RBR.com web portal with a – Fresh – Reader Friendly Content Design – and a New ‘Information Bureau’ that will help every person in media today. Look for it in 2012.
