The Census Bureau will release new, updated U.S. national scope population projections to 2060 on October 10.
The Census projections are of national scope only. However, a privately owned developer of geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools has knit together diverse data it gathered to provide a preview of what the U.S. will look like in 2060.
Poor Chicago.
But, before we discuss the forecast dip in Cook County, Ill.’s population, let’s take a glance and what we can expect in the next 10 years, and the next 15 years.
By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age.
Older people will outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history by 2035 —there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18.
For radio and TV broadcasters, this could be a short-term positive, given this generation’s long and continued use of over-the-air stations. As discretionary income becomes more of a household concern as elder Americans age, the use of a Roku device and/or TV antenna could increase. For Next Gen TV and addressable advertising solutions, a strong opportunity to cash in on a graying America could be seen in 10-15 years.
At the same time, AM radio’s conclusion as a band of choice — a very real possibility — could be prevented by not only the adoption of HD Radio on kHz stations but also by encouraging older audiences to tune to niche formats built for AM stations: Sports, Talk and Classic Oldies featuring Top Hits of the 1960s.
Even FM stations could benefit from reaching this generation, as seen with Riviera Broadcasting‘s launch this week of “The WOW Factor” — programming consultant John Sebastian‘s eclectic 55+ format featuring Classic Hits, Oldies and an occasional Country title — at KOAI-FM in Phoenix.
THIRTY-YEAR EXPECTATION
By 2060, the U.S. is projected to grow by 78 million people, from about 326 million today to 404 million. As the population ages, the ratio of older adults to working-age adults, the old-age dependency ratio, is projected to rise.
By 2020, there will be about three-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. By 2060, that ratio will fall to just two-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person.
The median age of the U.S. population is expected to grow from age 38 today to age 43 by 2060.
How will population change between now and 2060 by state, metro, region, county and city?
ProximityOne came up with the following data based on Census estimates. For those who have closely watching population trends, the results aren’t surprising. Still, the loss of residence in the nation’s third-largest demographic suggests Chicago media — and its influence as America’s Second City — has waned.
As shown above, Cook County, Ill., is projected to lose nearly 375,000 residents between 2010 and 2060.
At the same time, growth in Southern California isn’t expected to ebb — even with reports suggesting Golden State residents are fleeing. Riverside County, within the Inland Empire, and San Diego County are projected to significantly grow in total population. The Bay Area will also see continued growth.
Also hot — no pun intended — are Clark County, Nev., home to Las Vegas; and Maricopa County, Ariz., home to the sprawling Phoenix-Scottsdale-Chandler-Mesa-Tempe-Gilbert-Peoria DMA.
Dallas and Houston are also projected to grow.
It is worth noting that the highest growth areas are high-density Hispanic markets.
For a detailed look at trends in your market, please click here:
http://proximityone.com/demographics2060.htm
