On Nov. 4, after an exhaustive internal investigation by dozens of Nielsen staffers that began nearly a week earlier, Nielsen affirmed that its November 2016 Cable Network Coverage Area Universe Estimates were accurate as originally released.
“We take the accuracy of our data very seriously and determined the magnitude of change merited a thorough review of our processes to be certain that these estimates were produced correctly,” Nielsen said.
ESPN, the Walt Disney Co.-owned sports and entertainment network most affected by the new “UEs,” was less than satisfied with Nielsen’s conclusions.
In a statement in response to Nielsen’s findings, ESPN said, “This most recent snapshot from Nielsen is a historic anomaly for the industry and inconsistent with much more moderated trends observed by other respected third party analysts. It also does not measure DMVPDs and other new distributors and we hope to work with Nielsen to capture this growing market in future reports.”
Bruce Leichtman, President and Principal Analyst at New Hampshire-based Leichtman Research Group, agrees.
November UEs showed ESPN losing 621,000 homes, ESPN2 shedding 607,000 homes and ESPNU minus 674,000 homes, sports journalist Ken Fang reported at AwfulAnnouncing.com.
“I’m not going to question Nielsen, per se, but that number of losses in one month in Q4 is a bizarre aberration,” Leichtman said in an interview with RBR + TVBR. “It is out of context.”
Does Leichtman believe it may be a sampling issue?
“That I cannot answer,” he says. “But, it doesn’t make sense.”
Leichtman looked closely at the his numbers, based on data collected during Q3 quarterly earnings reports and conference calls with analysts. According to his estimates, some 250,000 people — including Sling users — were no longer paid subscribers.
“That’s only 50,000 more than Q3 2015,” Leichtman says. “The fourth quarter has always been better. There has never been a negative fourth quarter.”
With “a complete disconnect” from the subscriber numbers providers are sharing, Leichtman notes that Nielsen does not presently track viewing in second homes, a major factor in “snowbird” DMAs including West Palm Beach, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Springs, Calif. Additionally, viewing at “commercial” venues — a.k.a. at the office or at a retail establishment — is absent, as is viewing via an internet-delivery service.
Even if those viewers were factored in to the November cable estimate numbers, it still doesn’t add up for Leichtman.
So, is “cord-cutting” for real?
“Not in one month in the fourth quarter,” he says. “There was no surge in cord-cutting.”
In fact, Leichman looked at the top cable TV service providers, which represent 95% of cable subscribers, and discovered that the numbers are 1.8 million down from their peak …. in Q1 2012.
“When you see one month of that number, it doesn’t fit,” he says. “I think I learned that on Sesame Street many years ago.”
RBR + TVBR
