The Interactive Advertising Bureau’s “NewFronts” ad sales extravaganza officially kicked off today, with live and virtual sessions on the slate in the upcoming days following presentations Monday from Google and VIZIO. With story after story suggesting digital ad sales growth is relentless while linear sales action remains tepid, Guideline Solutions has released fresh data that shows the good ‘ol Upfront remains important for advertisers seeking adults 18-49, in particular.
According to Guideline, Upfront linear television media pricing increased by 4% in 2023, while overall OTT media pricing declined by 1%.
Furthermore, age-target Upfront Linear TV eCPMs — against Persons 18-49 — gained even faster upward momentum, reaching 12% year-over-year lift in 2023.
This finding comes as Guideline shared data showing Upfront Linear TV eCPMs averaged 4.9% annual growth from 2021 through 2023; overall OTT averaged flat performance during the same period.
Guideline leverages actual agency pricing data to unveil exclusive “effective CPMs” or
eCPMs as its measurement. “This unique, directly ingested data empowers strategic NewFronts and Upfronts preparation and negotiation,” the company says.
In fact, Guideline says that for every year since 2021, Upfront Linear TV eCPMs (against Persons 2-99) “reliably increased” by mid-single-digits, while OTT varied by low-single-digits.
Yet, it adds, “Linear TV faced ongoing audience reach erosion, while OTT viewership continues to climb with more consumers connecting to more content in those channels.”
Guideline’s 2023 US Media Year-in-Review report explains, however, that Digital Video growth “recalibrated more toward short-form or user-generated OLV than OTT,” and is especially driven by the proliferation of TikTok.
“Given OLV’s less premium nature vs. OTT episodic streaming, OLV eCPMs lagged OTT eCPMs by more than half,” Guideline concludes.
What about the “scatter” market?
In 2023, the Scatter Premium (i.e., the price relative to Upfront inventory for more liquid
Scatter reserves) reached 1.14x, representing a three-year low compared to 1.27x in 2021.
“Notably, Entertainment strikes posed a disruptive market force with less new programming
available, as the year progressed,” Guideline says.
