NEW YORK — When it comes to exclusive radio industry gatherings, there’s perhaps nothing that comes close to Forecast 2020, Radio’s Financial Summit.
This year’s event, held Wednesday at the Harvard Club in Midtown Manhattan, didn’t disappoint. When MediaVillage and MyersBizNet founder Jack Myers is a panelist on an economic forecasting panel moderated by Borrell Associates CEO Gordon Borrell, Forecast 2020 kicked off with a dollar-focused Election 2020-fueled bang.
With a no-press policy in place, RBR+TVBR is pleased to offer select highlights from the event.
The first session, following opening remarks that saw Cumulus Media President/CEO Mary Berner and Association of National Advertisers CEO Bob Liodice address the capacity crowd as event co-chairs — with Spanish Broadcasting System (SBS) COO Albert Rodriguez introducing Liodice and ABC Radio VP/GM Stacia Deshishku introducing Berner — put a magnifying glass on revenue expectations and trends for 2020.
Who better than Myers and Borrell to discuss the topic.
The key question posed by Borrell to panelists?
What should the Radio industry do to get their positive messages out to marketers and advertisers?
“Make more sales calls,” quipped Advertiser Perceptions EVP/Media Andy Sippel.
Elevating the message of what radio has to offer is a primary need, says Patrick McGee, SVP of Political Strategies at Katz Radio Group.
For Myers, a look at 2020 has to be politically focused. For radio, this means that “it’s got to be aggressively selling digital.”
Why? Radio’s competitor for political ad dollars in 2020 is addressable advertising, Myers says.
In the view of Media Fortitude Partners founding partner Leah Casterlin, “we are super-polarized as a country, right now.” But, as radio has outsized appeal among certain groups, such as Black and Hispanic consumers.
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The following session, “Prospects for Radio as an Investment in 2020,” offered “the real Street Talk” from S&P Global Director of Corporate Ratings Rose Olberman and Kalil & Co. VP and broker Todd Hartman.
Serving as moderator: Former Jacor, Clear Channel and Tribune Co. leader Randy Michaels, now head of small-market radio station owner Radioactive LLC.
He spoke highly of radio as an exciting and profitable investment opportunity, and how it remains an extraordinary free cash flow business with high consumer usage. “It’s ubiquitous,” Michaels said.
He also lamented how “the leaders of our business are scrambling for a race to the bottom,” noting that content and programming remains key to radio’s growth.
It’s perhaps a learning lesson for the disciples of Michaels who rapidly turned to voicetracking and reducing in-market opportunities for air personalities, morphing his vision into one based on efficiencies and economic gain instead of listener benefit.
Nevertheless, Michaels believes “there are some that are going to make big bets in this space, and come out winners.”
And, if that happens, the future operator will need to put product ahead of advertising, citing a philosophy championed by Top 40 radio pioneer Gordon McClendon, who ran KLIF-AM 1190 and KNUS-FM 99 in Dallas in the 1960s and 1970s.
For Oberman, it is “material deleveraging” that will make the radio industry intriguing for some investors, she predicts — even if pressure from a recession occurs.
How has the deal-making market been? At Kalil, “2018 was a good year … 2017 was a good year,” Hartman said.
But, the total number of deals is down. This year, some 17 transactions were closed. A year earlier, the number was 22.
Still, “the phones are ringing with potential buyers and sellers,” Hartman said.
Michaels asked if this includes anybody but religious broadcasters?
Absolutely, Hartman replied.
In the case of Educational Media Foundation, Hartman notes that 15 to 20 years ago, the religious broadcasting giant missed out on opportunities. Now, he says EMF is taking advantage of an opportunity “to come in at the right time.”
While EMF has been one of the most visible buyers, is there one company investors should put their money in?
Oberman says it is iHeartMedia.
Hartman was “politically correct” in saying that all companies deserve dollars.
With political dollars in 2020, it’s going to be exciting to watch, he concludes.
Other sessions at Forecast 2020 included a presentation from Suzy founder and CEO Matt Britton on new opportunities and challenges for traditional media such as Radio, and a luncheon that saw the Lifetime Leadership Award presented to Beasley Media Group founder George Beasley.
