Along with her detailed analysis of which public companies have the most revenue exposure to the hot 2012 election contests from the TV perspective – the big pot of gold – Wells Fargo Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker also looked at the radio side. She declared that Saga and Entercom have the most to gain from political spending this year.
The analyst is projecting that political advertising on radio at $256 million. That’s less than a tenth of the $2.8 billion that she forecasts for television, but still a significant pile of money.
“Our analysis shows that SGA and ETM have the greatest Radio revenue exposure to hot Election 2012 markets, at 36% and 28%, respectively. SGA is significantly better exposed than its peers to Swing States (52%) and ‘hot’ Senator races (40%), while ETM has more diversified exposure to the different races,” Ryvicker said in here detailed research piece.
As previously noted, CBS Radio also has a lot of revenue exposure to the 2012 elections, but TV is a much bigger component of Ryvicker’s conclusion that CBS Corporation has the most to gain from the 2012 elections of the diversified media giants.
Clear Channel Radio (CC Media Holdings) also has high overall exposure to the 2012 elections. Cumulus Media also does well in terms of the so-called “swing states” in the presidential race.
RBR-TVBR observation: There’s nothing you can do to make your market part of a “hot contest” or to make your state a “swing state” – but if you are lucky to be in one of those (and in some cases more than one at the same time) go out and make sure all of the contenders know just how critical your station is going to be to their attempt to win at the polls. With the depths of the recession still fresh in your memory, it’s going to be nice to have the money flowing in.