Local television will be the media venue of choice, as per usual, according to the assessment of Wachovia Capital Markets as Marci Ryvicker and associates. WCM looked at the spending patterns of the last two contests and provides projections going forward for a wide variety of media. Television, in its various forms, is expected to grab 67.6% of political business. Radio is expected to be ahead of 2004 in terms of revenue and share. It will come in ahead of 2006 in terms of raw dollars but its share is expected to decrease. It will be the third venue of choice, behind direct mail. Newspaper, internet and outdoor have yet to take hold in the politcal arena, looking at shares of 2.3%, 2.3% and 1.4% respectively.
|
|
2004 |
|
2006 |
|
2008 |
|
|
Medium |
Rev |
Pct. |
Rev |
Pct. |
Rev |
Pct. |
|
Local TV |
$1560M |
58.90% |
$2100M |
61 |
$2700M |
60.90% |
|
Network TV |
$40M |
1.50% |
$50M |
1.5 |
$60M |
1.40% |
|
Cable TV |
$100M |
3.80% |
$150M |
4.4 |
$240M |
5.40% |
|
Total TV |
$1700M |
64.20% |
$2300M |
66.8 |
$3000M |
67.60% |
|
Direct mail |
$650M |
24.50% |
$700M |
20.3 |
$900M |
20.30% |
|
Radio |
$175M |
6.60% |
$250M |
7.3 |
$275M |
6.20% |
|
Newspaper |
$60M |
2.30% |
$100M |
2.9 |
$100M |
2.30% |
|
Internet |
$30M |
1.10% |
$40M |
1.2 |
$100M |
2.30% |
|
Outdoor |
$35M |
1.30% |
$55M |
1.6 |
$60M |
1.40% |
|
Total |
$2650M |
– |
$3445M |
– |
$4435M |
– |
Source: Wachovia Capital Markets, TNS Media Intelligence/CMAQ, PQ Media
