Marci Ryvicker more bullish on LIN Media


Ahead of most broadcasters reporting Q4 results, analyst Marci Ryvicker at Wells Fargo Securities says Q1 is looking better than the just past quarter. She’s telling investors there is potential upside to her 2012 estimates – and she’s already boosted her earnings estimate for LIN Media.

“At this point, it is pretty well known that Q4 was not a strong quarter BUT the tone for Q1 sounds good to us. According to our checks as well as companies reporting thus far, Q4 was not a great quarter for ad-exposed media, which should not be surprise given concerns about the global economy,” Ryvicker said in a note. “That said, Q1 sounds relatively healthy – for a few reasons. 1) Advertising from Q4 was pushed into Q1. 2) Auto continues to spend heavily (and is ~20-plus% of television advertising and 13-plus% of radio advertising revenue). 3) Political remains strong.”

Here is her bottom line: “Despite the Q4 softness, we do not anticipate any outright misses given conservative guidance, and we think investor focus will be on Q1 pacings and the overall tone for full year 2012,” she told clients.

Among the stocks in her coverage universe, Ryvicker sees potential upside to her financial estimates for Belo and Sinclair in TV, along with Lamar in outdoor advertising.

For now, though, she is only raising the bar for LIN Media. LIN recently completed a refinancing. As a result, Ryvicker now expects 2012 earnings per share to hit 88 cents, up from her previous estimate of 82 cents.