“Time spent on cable networks built on movies, syndicated TV and kids content has collapsed over the past two years as consumers and media companies adopted a streaming first mind-set.”
That not-so-surprising sobering reminder of how consumers enjoy their visual entertainment today comes courtesy of MoffettNathanson Senior Analyst Michael Nathanson.
This is, in a way, good news for broadcast TV. At the same time, its a warning for broadcast TV that scripted programming’s lure must be stronger for viewers to keep coming back — even in a five-to-seven day post-broadcast window.
“[It] is clear as day, looking at a two-year stack, that live sports and news are rising in importance and value to linear stake-holders,” Nathanson writes. But, is that the only key value point for consumers and marketers?
What prompted Nathanson to issue the 22-page report, presented in a slide-show format?
“Somewhere lost in all the media sector earnings calls and streaming investor days is the fact that the pandemic — and the shift of consumers and content to DTC platforms — has had a stunning impact on what content is being viewed in the linear world,” he writes. ” For years, we have prophesied that the future of the linear bundle will be driven by live sports, news and events. After crunching all key Nielsen data points for 2021, we are here to say that the future has arrived.”
The biggest takeaway? “Cable and broadcast networks have seen their audience reach evaporate, falling double digits over the past several years,” Nathanson notes. “That reach is increasingly focused on older, power users of live content.”
For cable networks, general entertainment, kids programming, and movies have been the hardest hit genres, with only sports and news bucking dramatic declines in viewership. Furthermore, there has been a dramatic reduction in the consumption of original scripted cable network content as audiences move to SVOD for that fare, Nathanson points out.
Broadcast networks bounced back in 2021 helped by sports (led by the NFL and the Summer Olympics). But, in the end, Nathanson believes linear viewing appears headed to a world of “live” programming while almost every other genre is served on demand.
Broadcast networks are far less reliant on their biggest hits to drive time viewed, with their three biggest shows driving on average just 39% of total time viewed. Sports programming occupies seven of the twelve most important content offerings for the four broadcast networks.
CBS stands out as the only channel with anything other than sports and news rounding out its top 3 shows, with its long running soap opera Young and Restless and even longer running (by 1 year) game show The Price is Right joining NFL in its top hits.
