As the halfway mark of 2023 nears, research firm MAGNA Global has released its June 2023 Ad Forecast. MAGNA’s Global Advertising Forecasts cover various media channels, including pay and free television, internet, print media, radio, cinema, and out-of-home.
The forecast is pulled from media suppliers’ revenues in 70 markets, representing 95% of the world’s economy. The full forecast is accessible to subscribers through the MAGNA Atlas website and app. Here are the study’s biggest takeaways.
MAGNA predicts that media owners’ advertising revenues will reach $842 billion this year, showing a growth of 4.6% compared to 2022. This keeps the positive slant of the previously forecasted growth for 2023, despite being 0.2 percentage points lower.
Ad spend in the US stagnated in the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 but is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. US media owners’ advertising revenues will increase by 2.5% to $333 billion this year. Cross-platform video will see a decrease of 8%, audio will decline by 2%, publishing by 6%, out-of-home will grow by 3%, search/commerce by 10%, social by 8%, and direct mail will decrease by 7%.
The economic conditions and marketing spending in Western markets have been offset by stronger-than-expected growth in markets like China and Spain, as well as in industry verticals such as retail and social media. Traditional media, including television, audio, publishing, out-of-home, and cinema, continue its decrease as MAGNA forecasts traditional ad revenues across these categories will shrink by 3% to $264 billion.
While categories like automotive and travel are expected to grow as the business recovers, retail may not necessarily experience significant growth. Consumer packaged goods/fast-moving consumer goods categories are increasing spending on search and retail media networks, bringing new money into the ecosystem.
2024 is expected to be an exceptional year for ad revenue, with the US Presidential elections, Paris Olympics, and Euro Football championship. Globally, ad spend is expected to increase by 6.1% to $892 billion, with the US experiencing an even higher growth rate of 7.3%. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by 1%, while digital pure players’ ad sales will increase by 8% next year.
