In 2004, all presidential candidates spent about $500M during the campaign. Much has already been spent during a hotly contested Democratic primary, and the winner of that contest, Barack Obama (D-IL), has raised over half that amount all by himself. He and opponent John McCain (R-AZ) figure to easily eclipse the 2004 total by November,
Obama has had major success amassing a large number of smaller donations of hard cash from a multitude of citizens, and figures to continue raking in cash through the campaign cycle. McCain, who according to Reuters has accepted federal funding, will be limited to $85M during the campaign’s endgame. It is believed that his campaign will gladly accept help from unaffiliated organizations which are able to buy advertising within the rules as currently structured. Obama has been discouraging such groups in order to retain total control over his message.
Television spending for the presidential race alone is expected to top $800M.
Another expected difference between 2004 and 2008 is less reliance on battleground status when planning media buys. This in part reflects an effort begun by 2004 Democratic primary contender and current DNC chair Howard Dean to begin contesting Republicans in for every office in every district in every state. Obama is taking the 50-state strategy and running with it, forcing McCain to defend territory largely conceded to President Bush by John Kerry (D-MA) last time around.
There are also expected to be major battles all over down the ticket. The RNC is better funded than the DNC, thus better able to target funding to developing hotspots, but the national Democratic Senate and House committees enjoy big leads in funding over their Republican counterparts.
RBR/TVBR observation: Broadcasters in locations who have trained themselves not to think too hard about political cash may enjoy the prospect of thinking again this year. As the cash pool increases and the battlefield expands, that obviously means more wealth made available to more stations. Since local news is a favored program for political advertisers, this is the time to make sure your operation is hitting on all cylinders.
Radio always seems to be the black sheep when analysts look ahead to where the political cash is going. But while the cash is going up, the air inventory will be relatively stable, meaning there should be a lot of spillover. And radio is often a much better choice than television for down-ticket races. So it will pay to make sure you’re poised to rake in your fair share.
