CANNES, FRANCE — “Stronger-than-expected” spending across the first half of 2024 has led MAGNA to upwardly adjust its 2024 global ad forecast. But, is digital driving the growth — and at the expense of linear media including broadcast radio and television?
To best answer that question, looking from the top down at the data is the best method of understanding why MAGNA’s 2024 growth forecast is being revised. First, Q1 saw 12% year-over-year ad growth. Second, U.S. real GDP growth was up by 2.5% and rose 3.2% globally.
These are among the factors that led MAGNA to forecast that advertising revenues will reach $927 billion this year, growing by 10%.
Here’s the good news for linear media: the advertising revenues of traditional media owners — including television, radio, publishing, and out-of-home media industries — is expected to grow to $272 billion, reflecting a 3% increase.
That, says MAGNA, represents “a noticeable improvement” compared to 2023 (a 4% decline).
Focusing on the U.S., MAGNA believes the domestic ad market will grow by 10.7% in 2024, to $374 billion. Breaking down radio/TV/publishing/OOH, ad sales will grow by 4.4% to $111 billion.
Sounds good? A look at the Digital Pure Play ad revenue gains shows the widening gulf between “new media” and linear media: DPP ad revenues will expand by 13.5% to $263 billion, and that’s in the U.S. alone, MAGNA data show.
Looking globally, MAGNA predicts that cross-platform television will remain the largest traditional media, with total ad sales reaching $162 billion this year. That’s up by 4%, thanks to cyclical events and “rapid growth” of ad-supported streaming.
Radio ad sales on a global level are forecast to grow by 2%, to $29 billion. That said, market discrepancies must be taken into consideration. And, the U.S. remains the largest and “most intense” ad market in the world, with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10), MAGNA notes.
— With analysis by RBR+TVBR, in New York
