We will start out by saying that if we really knew what was going to happen next year, we’d be in Las Vegas or Atlantic City, and we would not waste one tiny thought on things like the FCC. However, we did pretty good guessing some of the events of 2009. (We don’t count not seeing the bottom drop out of the entire industry, since nobody else saw it either.)
Here, then, are our bold predictions for 2010. Just as with your old copies of MAD Magazine, they are suitable for lining birdcages and wrapping fish. Unlike your old copies of MAD Magazine, which are probably worth quite a bit if you kept them in mint condition, these predictions are worth precisely the value of the paper they are not printed on.
So print it out and line your birdcage? Sure! Make wagers with other members of the broadcast community based on them? We aren’t making any.
So here goes: What will happen in 2010
* There will be a lot of media companies selling new bond issues as the markets improve, but very few wanting to sell new stock shares until values improve a lot more.
* Citadel Broadcasting will do a major financial restructuring, likely a pre-packaged Chapter 11 filing. You don’t need a crystal ball for this, since the company has been talking about the need for a financial restructuring in numerous SEC filings. [Editor’s note: In fact, this one came true even before we got the prediction posted on the Internet!]
* Easy comps will finally produce year-over-year revenue growth for radio.
* TV will benefit from the election year, but core advertising will still be up only slightly, even against soft 2009 comps.
* Nielsen will expand from its initial 51 US radio markets. Yes, we predicted that a year ago, but trust us, it will happen eventually!
* Station trading in general will pick up as price expectation comes into alignment with reality and credit gradually loosens up.
* Major radio groups, Clear Channel and Citadel in particular, will shed more non-core stations as the financing markets improve for broadcast M&A.
* CC Media Holdings will likely scrape by and not fall into technical fault on its debt as business begins to improve, which will disappoint some vulture capital funds that bought of the debt.
* The reporters shield bill will be signed by Obama and become law.
* The bill enabling more low power FM will be signed by Obama and become law.
* The FCC’s Quadrennial Review will be a loud, boisterous affair with broadcasters thrown completely on the defensive.
* By the end of the year, nobody will yet know what the final broadcast/print cross-ownership rules will be.
* Television broadcasters will successfully defend their spectrum from FCC attempts to repurpose it for wireless broadband.
* The HD Radio power increase on FM will be approved by the FCC. Likely the 6dB increase.
* Many AM stations will shutter — even more than 2009 numbers.
* Proponents of finding uses for the white space between television channels will make major headway.
* Sirius XM will not wind up in bankruptcy court in 2010, despite anything TheStreet.com polls have to say.
* Internet radio listening in the car will reach measurable numbers – whether it be from an installed system, OEM system or just plugging iPhones or Blackberrys into the car receiver (or using a simple FM transmitter).
* The FCC will enshrine broadband principles that largely conform to what is known as network neutrality, and the court wrangling will begin.
