Ryvicker: Broadcast Fundamentals Strong
Wells Fargo financial analyst Marci Ryvicker agrees TV will do well with advertising and political ads specifically in 2016.
After meeting with public and private broadcasters in Miami during NATPE, she tells clients local fundamentals are good. “Despite what the market suggests, fundamentals seem to be quite strong, in our view-for both stations and networks.”
Core advertising revenue remains strong, pacing “up low-to-mid single digits. Auto is holding up nicely, which is important given this was the first category to show signs of a significant slowdown in the 6 mos. prior to the last recession. We’ve been asked a lot about the sustainability of auto adv. and were told that as long as SAAR stays above 16MM, this ad category should be just fine,” Ryvicker writes in a client report.
She projects political to be 20 to 25% higher for the broadcast industry, compared to the last presidential election. “Some groups will over-index, and others will under-index — it all depends on geography, affiliation mix and news ratings. Recall our initial 18% growth forecast (11/16/15), which clearly seems conservative given how competitive both the Democratic and Republican races have become.”