Wells Fargo Securities Senior Analyst Marci Ryvicker said broadcasters are facing fewer controversial business concerns than they were at this time in 2014, and are focusing on making the most of the present and the near future. And the medium doing the best job: Broadcast television.
Two of the three biggest things on the immediate horizon are TV-specific, and all three have the potential to be quite lucrative.
As for pacing, Ryvicker noted that the radio industry seems to be under-achieving at the moment. She had little to add about the medium. However, radio can benefit from one of the three rainmaking events if it is successful selling its attributes to the political community. Yes, it is the 2016 campaign season.
Ryvicker noted that the Hillary Clinton campaign is on track to build a $2.1B war chest, which the Republicans will likely match. And on top of that will be untold millions in PAC spending.
Television, of course, is in line for the lion’s share.
The move to ATSC 3.0 is also offering serious financial potential for television broadcasters, she noted.
So too is the incentive auction. Major television groups are very aware of the potential for some rain-making and are in talks with the FCC.
Ryvicker noted that the FCC appears willing to address broadcast concerns, most particularly by scrapping the dynamic reserve pricing scheme and by considering opening price changes.
More good news for broadcasters is the perception that the FCC will not meddle with retransmission consent or cable pricing.
One area affected by the auction is station trading on the TV side. Ryvicker said groups are talking to one another, but until more is known about the auction value of stations, dealing is likely to be on hold for the most part.
