Retail prospects a mixed bag but on the upside

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Consumer confidence as measured by research firm BIGresearch was down in August, but its latest look at a variety of retailers merchandising a variety of product categories shows that most, but not all, can expect sales to pick up in the next 90 days.


Likelihood of same-store improvement; and for eight of them, the gains are almost a certainty.

Only one store is on the bleak end of the spectrum, facing almost certain decline, and that store is Gap.

The study notes that the back-to-school season and the upcoming holiday season are reasons to expect retail activity to pick up, and suggests that the results are muted due to the lack of consumer confidence. The reseachers fear that the confidence situation could lead to a “…less–than-stellar holiday shopping season.”

Here are the store-by-store results of the study, which includes 20 of the 23 stores tracked by BIGresearch.

Almost certain to see increase:
BJ’s
Buckle
Costco
Neiman Marcus
Nordstrom
Ross
TJX
Wet Seal

Likely to see increase:            
Saks
Children’s Place
Dillard’s
Fred’s
Hot Topic
JC Penney
Victoria’s Secret

Likely to see decline:    
Banana Republic
Bon-Ton
Old Navy
Stage

Almost certain to see decrease:
Gap