Despite having the largest public stock float of any radio company, Cumulus Media has yet to attract much formal following by Wall Street equity analysts. That may change after the acquisitions of Citadel Broadcasting and CMP in 2011, so maybe some analysts thinking about adding Cumulus to their coverage portfolio will be on Monday’s (3/12) conference call after the company reports its Q4 results.
For the two equity analysts reporting to Thomson/First Call, Q4 revenue estimates for Cumulus were in a range of $295-297 million. We found a bit more detailed analysis from the debt side.
Here’s what Wells Fargo Securities high-yield bond analysts Bishop Cheen (pictured) and Davis Hebert are expecting from Cumulus:
“We are looking for Q4 net revenue to be down 2% on a pro forma basis to $302.2 million and EBITDA to be up 1% to $117.9 million, as the company has already taken action on the estimated $51.9 million in synergies from the Citadel acquisition. On the Nov. 14 earnings call, management said that revenue for the entire group was pacing down 4% and, excluding political from last year, the pacing was flat. Cumulus anticipates Q4 expense on the CDL platform to be down, while that on the CMI and CMP platform to be roughly flat, implying overall net expenses to be down year over year. With regard to 2012, CMLS expects as much as $30 million of political revenue next year and capital expenditures for the combined business to be approximately $15 million. At the end of Q3 2011, the company had total debt of $2.925 billion and total cash interest to be paid over the next 12 months of roughly $193 million. The company also plans to fully pay down the revolver by Q2 2012. We plan to listen for any color on planned uses of cash in 2012 and 2013, aside from paying down the revolver, especially given the prohibitively expensive preferred stock in the capital structure.”
